📋 Group Discussion (GD) Analysis Guide: The China-Taiwan Relationship and Its Global Economic Impact

🌐 Introduction to the Topic

Opening Context: The evolving tensions between China and Taiwan have become a linchpin issue in the global economy, significantly affecting industries reliant on Taiwan’s semiconductors and China’s manufacturing ecosystem. Understanding these dynamics is critical for assessing supply chain risks and mitigation strategies.

Topic Background: Since 1949, the China-Taiwan conflict has remained unresolved, with recent escalations drawing international attention. Taiwan’s strategic role in semiconductors and China’s manufacturing dominance make their relationship vital for global trade and economic stability.

📊 Quick Facts and Key Statistics

• 🖥️ Semiconductor Reliance: Taiwan’s TSMC accounts for over 60% of global semiconductor foundry revenue.
• 💼 Trade Volume: Taiwan’s total trade in 2022 reached approximately USD 907 billion, with exports to China and Hong Kong comprising over 30%.
• 📦 China’s Global Exports: The world’s largest electronics exporter, China contributed over 25% to global electronics exports in 2023.
• 🌍 Taiwan’s Global Role: Represented 6.5% of global electronics exports in 2023, showcasing its significance in electronics manufacturing.

🤝 Stakeholders and Their Roles

• 🏛️ Governments:
  • China: Exerting strategic pressure on Taiwan and maintaining trade dominance.
  • Taiwan: Leveraging its semiconductor leadership and building global trade alliances.
  • Global Powers: USA, EU, and Japan as key policy influencers and importers.
• 🏢 Corporations: Major players like TSMC, Apple, Foxconn, and Tesla rely heavily on Taiwan and China for components.
• 🌍 Global Trade Bodies: WTO facilitates trade dispute mitigation and promotes stability.
• 👥 Consumers: Directly impacted by rising costs and product availability in electronics and automotive sectors.

🏆 Achievements and Challenges

✔️ Achievements

• 💡 Semiconductor Dominance: Taiwan’s TSMC leads with over 60% global market share, enabling technological progress.
• 📈 Manufacturing Leadership: China’s status as the largest electronics exporter supports global supply chains.

⚠️ Challenges

• 📉 Supply Chain Risks: Geopolitical instability threatens global electronics and automotive production.
• ⚠️ Over-Reliance: Concentrated production in Taiwan and China makes global supply chains vulnerable.

🌍 Global Comparisons

• 🇯🇵 Japan and South Korea: Leading diversification efforts to reduce dependency on single regions.
• 🇪🇺 Europe: Building semiconductor capacity under the EU’s strategic autonomy plan.

Case Study: TSMC’s Role in Tech Giants: Companies like Apple rely on Taiwanese semiconductors for innovation, while maritime risks in the Taiwan Strait highlight the fragility of critical trade routes.

💡 Effective Discussion Approaches

• 📊 Opening Approaches:
  • “TSMC’s 60% global semiconductor market share illustrates the scale of dependency and associated risks.”
  • “While Taiwan’s 6.5% electronics export share is significant, China’s 25% dominance underscores the need for diversification.”
• 🔄 Counter-Argument Handling:
  • Acknowledge Taiwan and China’s contributions while proposing alternative supply chain strategies.

🔑 Strategic Analysis of Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths: Dominance in semiconductors (Taiwan) and electronics manufacturing (China).
• Weaknesses: Geopolitical vulnerabilities and industry concentration in conflict zones.
• Opportunities: Development of new supply chain hubs in India and Vietnam.
• Threats: Trade wars and potential military conflicts disrupting supply chains.

🛠️ Structured Arguments for Discussion

• ✅ Supporting Stance: “The unparalleled contributions of Taiwan and China are integral to global supply chains.”
• ❌ Opposing Stance: “Over-reliance on Taiwan and China creates systemic risks for industries worldwide.”
• ⚖️ Balanced Perspective: “While Taiwan and China are crucial, diversification is necessary to ensure supply chain resilience.”

📚 Connecting with B-School Applications

• 💼 Real-World Applications: Risk management, operational strategy, and regional diversification insights.
• ❓ Sample Interview Questions:
  • “How should businesses adapt to disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions?”
  • “Discuss the role of Taiwan in the future of global semiconductors.”
• ✨ Insights for Students: Lessons in supply chain risk management, strategic sourcing, and geopolitical awareness for global businesses.